The war in Ukraine is changing plausible future socioeconomic scenarios leading to an unexplored outlook for biodiversity

Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways are a key tool in predicting biodiversity scenarios and in the subsequent design of environmental policies. Here, we discuss how recent policy changes to global trade routes, agriculture, and energy production in response to the war in Ukraine are impacting socioeconomic scenarios used to set and assess biodiversity targets. We also discuss how the disruption to the global geopolitical landscape provides a window of opportunity for policy reform and the radical societal paradigm shift that is needed to tackle the global biodiversity crisis. We call for the re-evaluation of biodiversity targets with newly developed scenarios that reflect the changes made to production and consumption patterns. We also recommend establishing national biodiversity working groups to screen proposed policies for their potential risks to the drivers of biodiversity change, since policy decisions made in response to the war that seemingly are far removed from the environment can have lasting impacts on nature.