Seasonal Patterns, Inter-Annual Variability, and Long-Term Trends of Mean Sea Level Along the Western Iberian Coast and the North Atlantic Islands

Abstract

Sea level rise is challenging for coastal communities and land management decision makers. Understanding the patterns of regional variations at different temporal and spatial scales is key to implement adaptation plans that mitigate the local impacts of sea level rise. In this study, in situ observations from 14 tide gauges were complemented with satellite altimetry data to assess seasonality, multidecadal variability and long-term trends in mean sea level around the Western Iberian Coast (WIC) and the Portuguese archipelagos (Azores and Madeira). Results show varying spatial seasonal patterns between regions, with minimum (maximum) sea level observed in April (September) at the islands and minimum (maximum) observed in July (November) at the WIC. The influence of coastal upwelling on the seasonal mean sea level variations was detected over mainland. Although the influence of atmospheric patterns was observed on sea level inter-annual variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) showed a greater correlation with the sea level inter-decadal patterns. Finally, the trend analysis confirmed widespread sea level rise along the mainland and around the islands, which has intensified in recent decades. The regions of La Coruña and Cascais showed trends that were similar to the global average sea level rise since 1993, but the mainland regional average pointed to lower rates of rise (2.00 ± 0.06 mm/year). This work reinforces the need for long-term monitoring networks of sea level, ensuring the vertical stability of instruments and platforms. The implementation of regional adaptation plans to sea level rise is deeply dependent on high quality information.