How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence

IF 2.1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111985

Sangyup Choi , Jaehun Jeong , Donghoon Yoo

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using novel quarterly data of 29 U.S. states from 2005:I to 2015:IV, we revisit the link between consumer confidence and economic activity. We find that an innovation in consumer confidence is followed by a significant and persistent increase in consumption and output but a temporary decline in inflation. These findings suggest that the supply-side (news) interpretation of consumer confidence receives more empirical support than the demand-side (animal spirit) interpretation in our sample.

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如何解读消费者信心冲击？国家层面的证据

利用 2005:I 至 2015:IV 期间美国 29 个州的新季度数据，我们重新审视了消费者信心与经济活动之间的联系。我们发现，随着消费者信心的增强，消费和产出会显著持续增长，但通货膨胀会暂时下降。这些发现表明，在我们的样本中，对消费者信心的供给方（新闻）解释比需求方（动物精神）解释获得了更多的经验支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.