A probabilistic hazard assessment for cyanobacterial toxins accounting for regional geography and water body trophic status

IF 3.6 Q2 TOXICOLOGY
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Under climate change scenarios freshwater eutrophication is expected to increase, and with it the occurrence of cyanobacterial toxin-producing harmful algal blooms. In the current study, microcystin toxin occurrence data from literature sources and a long-term provincial monitoring program were used to conduct a probabilistic hazard assessment for Alberta, Canada. The large temporal and spatial range of data makes Alberta a model system for identifying regional geography and water body trophic status factors driving toxin concentrations. Environmental exposure distributions of microcystin concentrations were plotted and used to identify the likelihood of a given sample exceeding water guideline values as a function of regional geography, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentration. This process identified regions with intensive cultivation and those most prone to water deficits associated with climate change to be most associated with exceedances of regulatory guideline values. Elevated phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were also drivers of toxin occurrence. This assessment can be used to identify water bodies of greatest risk to human and animal populations from cyanotoxins and thereby inform regulators as to most effective monitoring strategies.

Abstract Image

考虑区域地理和水体营养状况的蓝藻毒素概率危害评估
在气候变化的情况下,淡水富营养化预计会加剧,产生蓝藻毒素的有害藻华也会随之增加。在当前的研究中,利用文献来源和省级长期监测计划中的微囊藻毒素发生数据,对加拿大艾伯塔省进行了概率危害评估。大量的时间和空间数据使艾伯塔省成为确定区域地理和水体营养状态因素驱动毒素浓度的示范系统。绘制了微囊藻毒素浓度的环境暴露分布图,并根据区域地理、总磷和叶绿素-a 浓度的函数,确定了特定样本超过水指导值的可能性。这一过程确定了密集种植地区和最容易因气候变化而缺水的地区与监管指导值超标的关系最为密切。磷和叶绿素-a 浓度的升高也是毒素发生的驱动因素。该评估可用于确定蓝藻毒素对人类和动物群体造成最大风险的水体,从而为监管机构提供最有效的监测策略。
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来源期刊
Toxicon: X
Toxicon: X Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics-Toxicology
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
33
审稿时长
14 weeks
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