Measuring wholesale electricity price risk from climate change: Evidence from Portugal

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2024.101837

Negin Entezari , José Alberto Fuinhas

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The increasing widespread utilization of renewable energy sources, especially those reliant on the weather, coupled with the effects of climate change, is making electricity markets more sensitive to weather conditions. Portugal relies heavily on hydropower for its domestic energy generation. With its robust VAR approach, this study aims to comprehend how water resource variations due to precipitation patterns or reservoir levels influence price dynamics in the wholesale electricity market. By investigating whether these price increases are associated with temperature variations and considering the impact of temperature on both electricity demand and the availability of water resources for power generation, we provide crucial insights into the vulnerability of the electricity system to hydrological uncertainties. These findings can help stakeholders, including policymakers and industry professionals, develop effective strategies to manage price fluctuations. Understanding these relationships is critical to informed decision-making regarding resource allocation, energy market regulations, and infrastructure planning to mitigate the impact of climate-induced changes on electricity prices.

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衡量气候变化带来的批发电价风险：葡萄牙的证据

可再生能源的利用越来越广泛，特别是那些依赖天气的能源，再加上气候变化的影响，使得电力市场对天气条件更加敏感。葡萄牙的国内能源生产严重依赖水力发电。本研究采用稳健的 VAR 方法，旨在了解降水模式或水库水位导致的水资源变化如何影响电力批发市场的价格动态。通过调查这些价格上涨是否与气温变化有关，并考虑气温对电力需求和用于发电的水资源可用性的影响，我们提供了电力系统易受水文不确定性影响的重要见解。这些发现可以帮助包括政策制定者和行业专业人士在内的利益相关者制定管理价格波动的有效策略。了解这些关系对于资源分配、能源市场监管和基础设施规划方面的知情决策至关重要，从而减轻气候引起的变化对电价的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.