Remote Interactions between tropical cyclones: The case of Hurricane Michael and Leslie's high predictability uncertainty

IF 4.5 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107697

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The study explores Hurricane Michael's impact on Hurricane Leslie's trajectory predictability using ECMWF and NCEP ensemble systems. A clustering method focused on tropical cyclones is used to identify potential paths for Leslie: Cluster 1 accurately predicted Leslie's direction towards the Iberian Peninsula, whereas Clusters 2 and 3 indicated a southern recurve near the Canary Islands. Analysis of potential vorticity and irrotational wind at upper levels showed a significant interaction between Michael, ridge, and trough across the jet stream from +12 h after initialization. Cluster 1 showed a stronger Michael promoting upper-level wind divergence greatest, modifying the jet stream configuration around the ridge and downstream. Alterations in the jet stream's configuration, functioning as a waveguide, propagated downstream, guiding Leslie towards the Iberian Peninsula. Clusters 2 and 3 indicated the trough's failure to incorporate Leslie, resulting in a recurve of the trajectory around the Azores anticyclone. This research enhances comprehension of the interaction between two tropical cyclones via synoptic Rossby wave flow. Moreover, the conceptual framework can aid operational meteorologists in identifying the sources of uncertainty, particularly in track forecasts under synoptic conditions analogous to those examined in this study.

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热带气旋之间的远程互动：飓风迈克尔和莱斯利的高度可预测性的不确定性

该研究利用 ECMWF 和 NCEP 集合系统探讨了飓风迈克尔对飓风莱斯利路径预测性的影响。研究采用了以热带气旋为重点的聚类方法来确定莱斯利的潜在路径：聚类 1 准确预测了莱斯利向伊比利亚半岛移动的方向，而聚类 2 和聚类 3 则表明莱斯利将在加那利群岛附近向南折返。对高层的潜在涡度和非旋转风的分析表明，从初始化后+12 h起，迈克尔、海脊和整个喷流中的低槽之间存在显著的相互作用。集群 1 显示，更强的迈克尔促进了高层风的最大发散，改变了海脊周围和下游的喷流配置。喷射流构造的改变作为波导向下游传播，将莱斯利引向伊比利亚半岛。第 2 和第 3 组表明，低谷未能将莱斯利纳入其中，导致亚速尔群岛反气旋周围的轨迹发生倒转。这项研究加深了人们对两个热带气旋通过同步罗斯比波流相互作用的理解。此外，该概念框架可帮助业务气象学家识别不确定性的来源，特别是在与本研究类似的同步条件下的路径预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

10.90%

发文量

460

审稿时长

47 days

期刊介绍： The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.