Construction and Analysis of Risk Prediction Model of Eosinophilic Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyps: A Cross-Sectional Study in Northwest China

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q2 OTORHINOLARYNGOLOGY

Clinical Otolaryngology Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI:10.1111/coa.14225

Huajie Yuan, Yuping Yang, Bo Zhang, Ang Li, Jiang Su, Xiaoyan Ding, Haisu Yan, Hua Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

To provide guidance for clinical endotypes by constructing a risk-predictive model of eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (ECRSwNP).

Design

A cross-sectional study.

Setting

Single-centre trial at tertiary medical institutions.

Participants

A cross-sectional study included 343 CRSwNP patients divided into ECRSwNP (n = 237) and non-ECRSwNP (n = 106) groups using surgical pathology.

Main Outcome Measures

Single-factor and multivariate analysis were used to identify statistically significant variables for constructing a nomogram, including the history of AR, hyposmia score, ethmoid sinus score, BEP and BEC. The model's performance was evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Allergic rhinitis, hyposmia score, ethmoid sinus score, peripheral blood eosinophil percentage (BEP) and eosinophil count (BEC) were retained for the construction nomogram of ECRSwNP. The nomogram exhibited a certain accuracy, with an AUC of 0.897 (95% CI: 0.864–0.930), good agreement in the calibration curve and a 0.891 C-index of internal validation. Moreover, the DCA with a threshold probability between 0.0167 and 1.00 indicated a higher net benefit and greater clinical utility.

Conclusion

The construction of a predictive risk model of ECRSwNP based on easily accessible factors could assist clinicians in more conveniently defining endotypes to make optimal diagnoses and treatment choices.

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嗜酸性粒细胞慢性鼻炎伴鼻息肉风险预测模型的构建与分析：中国西北地区横断面研究

目的通过构建嗜酸性粒细胞慢性鼻炎伴鼻息肉（ECRSwNP）的风险预测模型，为临床内型提供指导。主要结果测量采用单因素分析和多变量分析来确定具有统计学意义的变量，以构建提名图，这些变量包括 AR 病史、低渗评分、乙状窦评分、BEP 和 BEC。结果在构建 ECRSwNP 的提名图时，保留了过敏性鼻炎、低渗评分、乙状窦评分、外周血嗜酸性粒细胞百分比（BEP）和嗜酸性粒细胞计数（BEC）。该提名图具有一定的准确性，AUC 为 0.897（95% CI：0.864-0.930），校准曲线具有良好的一致性，内部验证的 C 指数为 0.891。此外，阈值概率介于 0.0167 和 1.00 之间的 DCA 显示出更高的净效益和更大的临床实用性。结论根据易于获取的因素构建 ECRSwNP 预测风险模型可帮助临床医生更方便地定义内型，从而做出最佳诊断和治疗选择。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Clinical Otolaryngology 医学-耳鼻喉科学

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

4.80%

发文量

106

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Clinical Otolaryngology is a bimonthly journal devoted to clinically-oriented research papers of the highest scientific standards dealing with: current otorhinolaryngological practice audiology, otology, balance, rhinology, larynx, voice and paediatric ORL head and neck oncology head and neck plastic and reconstructive surgery continuing medical education and ORL training The emphasis is on high quality new work in the clinical field and on fresh, original research. Each issue begins with an editorial expressing the personal opinions of an individual with a particular knowledge of a chosen subject. The main body of each issue is then devoted to original papers carrying important results for those working in the field. In addition, topical review articles are published discussing a particular subject in depth, including not only the opinions of the author but also any controversies surrounding the subject. • Negative/null results In order for research to advance, negative results, which often make a valuable contribution to the field, should be published. However, articles containing negative or null results are frequently not considered for publication or rejected by journals. We welcome papers of this kind, where appropriate and valid power calculations are included that give confidence that a negative result can be relied upon.