{"title":"A stacking-based model for the spread of Botryosphaeria laricina","authors":"Hongwei Zhou, Shibo Zhang, Meng Xie, Xiaodong Li, Yifan Chen, Wenhao Dai","doi":"10.1007/s11676-024-01768-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>Botryosphaeria laricina</i> (larch shoot blight) was first identified in 1973 in Jilin Province, China. The disease spread rapidly and caused considerable damage because its pathogenesis was unknown at the time and there were no effective controls or quarantine methods. At present, it shows a spreading trend, but most research can only conduct physiological analyses within a relatively short period, combining individual influencing factors. Nevertheless, methods such as neural network models, ensemble learning algorithms, and Markov models are used in pest and disease prediction and forecasting. However, there may be fitting issues or inherent limitations associated with these methods. This study obtained <i>B. laricina</i> data at the county level from 2003 to 2021. The dataset was augmented using the SMOTE algorithm, and then algorithms such as XGBoost were used to select the significant features from a combined set of 12 features. A new stacking fusion model has been proposed to predict the status of <i>B. laricina</i>. The model is based on random forest, gradient boosted decision tree, CatBoost and logistic regression algorithms. The accuracy, recall, specificity, precision, F<sub>1</sub> value and AUC of the model reached 90.9%, 91.6%, 90.4%, 88.8%, 90.2% and 96.2%. The results provide evidence of the strong performance and stability of the model. <i>B. laricina</i> is mainly found in the northeast and this study indicates that it is spreading northwest. Reasonable means should be used promptly to prevent further damage and spread.</p>","PeriodicalId":15830,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forestry Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forestry Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-024-01768-w","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Botryosphaeria laricina (larch shoot blight) was first identified in 1973 in Jilin Province, China. The disease spread rapidly and caused considerable damage because its pathogenesis was unknown at the time and there were no effective controls or quarantine methods. At present, it shows a spreading trend, but most research can only conduct physiological analyses within a relatively short period, combining individual influencing factors. Nevertheless, methods such as neural network models, ensemble learning algorithms, and Markov models are used in pest and disease prediction and forecasting. However, there may be fitting issues or inherent limitations associated with these methods. This study obtained B. laricina data at the county level from 2003 to 2021. The dataset was augmented using the SMOTE algorithm, and then algorithms such as XGBoost were used to select the significant features from a combined set of 12 features. A new stacking fusion model has been proposed to predict the status of B. laricina. The model is based on random forest, gradient boosted decision tree, CatBoost and logistic regression algorithms. The accuracy, recall, specificity, precision, F1 value and AUC of the model reached 90.9%, 91.6%, 90.4%, 88.8%, 90.2% and 96.2%. The results provide evidence of the strong performance and stability of the model. B. laricina is mainly found in the northeast and this study indicates that it is spreading northwest. Reasonable means should be used promptly to prevent further damage and spread.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forestry Research (JFR), founded in 1990, is a peer-reviewed quarterly journal in English. JFR has rapidly emerged as an international journal published by Northeast Forestry University and Ecological Society of China in collaboration with Springer Verlag. The journal publishes scientific articles related to forestry for a broad range of international scientists, forest managers and practitioners.The scope of the journal covers the following five thematic categories and 20 subjects:
Basic Science of Forestry,
Forest biometrics,
Forest soils,
Forest hydrology,
Tree physiology,
Forest biomass, carbon, and bioenergy,
Forest biotechnology and molecular biology,
Forest Ecology,
Forest ecology,
Forest ecological services,
Restoration ecology,
Forest adaptation to climate change,
Wildlife ecology and management,
Silviculture and Forest Management,
Forest genetics and tree breeding,
Silviculture,
Forest RS, GIS, and modeling,
Forest management,
Forest Protection,
Forest entomology and pathology,
Forest fire,
Forest resources conservation,
Forest health monitoring and assessment,
Wood Science and Technology,
Wood Science and Technology.