Construction and evaluation of sarcopenia risk prediction model for patients with diabetes: a study based on the China health and retirement longitudinal study (CHARLS)

Abstract

Sarcopenia is a common complication of diabetes. Nevertheless, precise evaluation of sarcopenia risk among patients with diabetes is still a big challenge. The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram model which could serve as a practical tool to diagnose sarcopenia in patients with diabetes. A total of 783 participants with diabetes from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2015 were included in this study. After oversampling process, 1,000 samples were randomly divided into the training set and internal validation set. To mitigate the overfitting effect caused by oversampling, data of CHARLS 2011 were utilized as the external validation set. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were employed to explore predictors. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed based on the 9 selected predictors. The model was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) for discrimination, calibration curves for calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical efficacy. In addition, machine learning models were constructed to enhance the robustness of our findings and evaluate the importance of the predictors. 9 factors were selected as predictors of sarcopenia for patients with diabetes. The nomogram model exhibited good discrimination in training, internal validation and external validation sets, with AUC of 0.808, 0.811 and 0.794. machine learning models revealed that age and hemoglobin were the most significant predictors. Calibration curves and DCA illustrated excellent calibration and clinical applicability of this model. This comprehensive nomogram presented high clinical predictability, which was a promising tool to evaluate the risk of sarcopenia in patients with diabetes.