A new method of photovoltaic clusters power prediction based on Informer considering time-frequency analysis and convergence effect

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI:10.1016/j.epsr.2024.111049

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) cluster power is crucial for the reliable and cost-effective operation of PV high penetration power systems. This paper introduces a method that utilizes time-frequency correlation. Firstly, the cluster power is decomposed using Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Algorithm (CEEMDAN) to extract more time-frequency information. Then, Kendall correlation coefficients are used to assess the consistency of time-frequency information across individual power plants and clusters within each frequency band. These coefficients are weighted according to the energy distribution in each frequency band to select the PV reference power station. Additionally, factors influencing PV power generation are taken into account to develop the PV impact factor. An Informer neural network is employed to predict the power output of the PV reference power plant. A trend inconsistency factor is introduced to adjust the PV cluster power variance. The final cluster prediction value is determined by correcting the linearly scaled variance using the adjusted variance. The method's feasibility and effectiveness are validated using real operational data from the PV cluster power plant in Alice Springs, Australia. This method offers a novel and highly accurate approach for forecasting future PV cluster power.

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考虑时频分析和收敛效应的基于 Informer 的光伏簇功率预测新方法

准确预测光伏（PV）集群功率对于光伏高渗透率电力系统的可靠和经济高效运行至关重要。本文介绍了一种利用时频相关性的方法。首先，使用自适应噪声算法互补集合经验模式分解（CEEMDAN）对集群功率进行分解，以提取更多的时频信息。然后，使用肯德尔相关系数来评估每个频段内单个发电厂和群组的时频信息的一致性。根据每个频段的能量分布对这些系数进行加权，以选择光伏参考电站。此外，还考虑了影响光伏发电的因素，以制定光伏影响因子。采用 Informer 神经网络预测光伏参考电站的功率输出。引入趋势不一致因子来调整光伏群组功率方差。通过使用调整后的方差修正线性比例方差，确定最终的群组预测值。该方法的可行性和有效性通过澳大利亚爱丽斯泉光伏集群电站的实际运行数据进行了验证。该方法为预测未来光伏集群功率提供了一种新颖且高度准确的方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

17.90%

发文量

963

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.