A novel extended social force model for studying the impact of the heterogeneity of pedestrian physical fitness on emergency evacuation efficiency

Abstract

Emergencies in public places, particularly confined crowded areas, will disrupt the stability of dense crowds and consequently lead to accidents. To promote public emergency safety, there is a pressing need for efficient modeling methods to investigate the evacuation mechanism in these places and improve the social public safety. This study proposes a Physical Fitness Heterogeneity based Social Force Model (PFH-SFM) that takes into account the heterogeneous desired evacuation velocity caused by the heterogeneity of pedestrian physical fitness, by means of developing the normalized desired velocity ratio. Then, we use PFH-SFM to investigate the relationships between the escape rate and the desired velocity, and between the evacuation duration and the desired velocity in terms of various group sizes with heterogeneous physical fitness, the relationship between the percentage of reduction in evacuation duration and desired velocity when including weak pedestrians, the pedestrian distribution in the evacuation process, the relationship between the total evacuation duration and the desired velocity in terms of various proportions of weak pedestrians and the relationship between the evacuation duration and the desired velocity in terms of various normalized starting and ending velocity ratios by considering various group sizes, respectively. The findings of this study show that the existence of a certain small proportion of pedestrians with weak physical fitness can promote global evacuation dynamics, especially in the case of high crowded density, and can reduce evacuation duration by up to 20% in our experiments. Additionally, when the percentage of pedestrians with weak physical fitness is relatively high, they tend to have a detrimental effect on the evacuation efficiency. Furthermore, there exists a moderate normalized desired starting velocity ratio that maximizes the overall evacuation efficiency; on the other hand, the lower the normalized desired ending velocity ratio is, the more efficient the evacuation is. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first time to introduce the concepts of normalized desired starting and ending velocity ratios and innovatively analyzes the impact of the continuously changing desired velocity of pedestrians on the evacuation efficiency in multi-exit scenarios. The results offer valuable insights for relevant stakeholders to formulate effective evacuation plans, so as to enhance urban emergency capacity and minimize social and economic losses.