From anthropogenic toward natural acidification: Effects of future deposition and climate on recovery in a humic catchment in Norway

Abstract

Five decades of monitoring data (1974–2022) at the acidified forested catchment of Langtjern in southern Norway document strong chemical recovery and browning of surface water, related to changes in sulfur (S) deposition. Further recovery is likely to be impacted by future air quality and climate, through catchment processes sensitive to climate change, where the relative importance of these drivers of recovery is poorly known. Here, we explore the importance of the aforementioned drivers for recovery using the well‐established process‐oriented Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments (MAGIC) with historical and projected deposition and climate from 1860 to 2100. New in MAGIC are (i) a solubility control of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from S deposition, which allows inclusion of the role of organic acids in chemical recovery and (ii) climate‐dependency of weathering rates. MAGIC successfully described observed chemical recovery and browning, and the change toward organic acid dominated acidification status. Hindcasts of pH predicted lower preindustrial pH than previously modeled with MAGIC (simulated without S‐dependency of DOC solubility). Future deposition resulted in limited further recovery. Climate scenarios indicated a substantially wetter future, leading to increased base cation losses and slight surface water reacidification. A sensitivity analysis revealed that a 25%–50% increase of weathering rates was needed to reach preindustrial acid‐neutralizing capacity in 2100, provided S deposition is reduced to a minimum. We predict that the limited chemical recovery from reduced S deposition will be counteracted by climate‐driven reacidification from base cation losses, but that enhanced weathering rates could partly compensate these losses.