Public debt and household inflation expectations

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003

Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal authorities plays a more limited role. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects but not with a greater risk of monetary finance.

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公共债务和家庭通胀预期

我们利用美国、英国和巴西的随机对照试验来研究公共债务新闻对家庭通胀预期的因果效应。当人们得知正确的公共债务水平时，往往会低估公共债务水平并提高通胀预期。修正的程度与信息意外的大小成正比。对中央银行的信心大大降低了通胀预期对公共债务的敏感性，而对财政当局的信心则作用有限。我们还表明，人们将高公共债务与滞胀效应联系在一起，而不是与更大的货币金融风险联系在一起。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.