Hydrological drought assessment of the Yellow River Basin based on non-stationary model

Abstract

Study region

the Yellow River Basin

Study focus

Non-stationary hydrological conditions are becoming increasingly common due to climate change and human activities, and pose a novel challenge to the management of water resources and related risks, especially for large basins. However, prevalent research on drought assessment often ignores the non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, we investigated the stationarity of the runoff of the Yellow River Basin (YRB), the second-longest basin in China. We used an approach for assessing non-stationary droughts based on the generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape to establish a standardized runoff index containing covariates (SRI_cov) to identify hydrological droughts in the basin from 1986 to 2015.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results show that the runoff was non-stationary in the YRB. Based on SRI_cov, hydrological drought predominantly occurred in the entire YRB in spring. From 1986, the number of months in which droughts occurred in the YRB exhibited a general trend of increase and peaked around 2002. After that, the total number of droughts significantly decreased but extreme droughts had become more prominent since 2005. The drought was more severe in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and was characterized by a high frequency, intensity, and severity. Our analysis enhances the understanding of hydrological modeling and drought assessment under non-stationary conditions.