Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram in patients aged ≥65 years with stage I-II non-small cell lung cancer treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy

Abstract

Introduction

This study aims to discern the efficacy and toxicity of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in older adults with stage I-II non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and establish a prognostic nomogram for these patients.

Materials and Methods

One hundred forty-two patients (aged ≥65 years) with clinically-confirmed stage I-II NSCLC treated with SBRT from 2009 to 2020 were enrolled in the study. Primary end points included overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), cumulative incidences of local failure (LF), regional failure (RF), distant failure (DF), and toxicity. A nomogram for OS was developed and validated internally using one thousand bootstrap resamplings.

Results

The median times to LF, RF, and DF were 22.1 months, 26.9 months and 24.1 months, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year PFS rates from the start of SBRT were 79.4 %, 53.1 %, and 38.9 %, respectively. Performance status, pre-SBRT platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and planning tumor volume (PTV) were predictive of PFS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates from the start of SBRT were 90.8 %, 67.9 % and 47.6 %, respectively. In multivariate analysis, good performance status, a low level of pre-SBRT PLR, and small tumor size were associated with better prognosis, all of which were included in the nomogram. The model showed optimal discrimination, with a C-index of 0.651 and good calibration. The most common adverse reactions were grade 1–2, such as anemia, cough, and fatigue.

Discussion

SBRT is a reasonable treatment modality for early-stage NSCLC in older adults. It achieved good survival outcomes and low toxicity. The proposed nomogram may be able to estimate individual outcomes for these patients.