A Bayesian analysis of domestic fire response and fire injury

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Fire Safety Journal Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI:10.1016/j.firesaf.2024.104266

M. Taylor , J. Fielding , D. Reilly , V. Kwasnica

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Abstract

In this article domestic fire response and fire injury was examined using a Bayesian analysis approach. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate the probability of non-fatal fire injury associated with a given fire response (escape, return to fire, fight the fire) under given circumstances of non-fatal fire injury (age band, gender, smoke alarm presence, type of domestic fire). The Bayesian model was developed using non-fatal fire injury data recorded by Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service between 2011 and 2022. Overall, more domestic fire injuries relating to attempting to fight the fire occurred in properties with a smoke detector (82 % of attempting to fight the fire injuries) compared to properties without a smoke detector (18 % of attempting to fight the fire injuries). Similarly, fire injuries sustained returning to the fire mainly occurred in properties with a smoke detector (75 % of returning to fire injuries) as opposed to properties without a smoke detector (25 % of returning to fire injuries).

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对家庭火灾响应和火灾伤害的贝叶斯分析

本文采用贝叶斯分析方法对家庭火灾响应和火灾伤害进行了研究。该研究建立了一个贝叶斯模型，用于估算在特定非致命性火灾伤害情况（年龄段、性别、烟雾报警器的存在、家庭火灾类型）下，与特定火灾响应（逃生、返回火场、灭火）相关的非致命性火灾伤害概率。贝叶斯模型是利用默西塞德郡消防和救援服务局在 2011 年至 2022 年期间记录的非致命性火灾伤害数据建立的。总体而言，与没有安装烟雾探测器的房产相比，安装了烟雾探测器的房产中因试图扑救火灾而受伤的人数更多（占试图扑救火灾受伤人数的 82%）（占试图扑救火灾受伤人数的 18%）。同样，在返回火场时遭受的火灾伤害主要发生在装有烟雾探测器的住宅中（占返回火场受伤人数的 75%），而没有烟雾探测器的住宅（占返回火场受伤人数的 25%）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Fire Safety Journal 工程技术-材料科学：综合

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

9.70%

发文量

153

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Fire Safety Journal is the leading publication dealing with all aspects of fire safety engineering. Its scope is purposefully wide, as it is deemed important to encourage papers from all sources within this multidisciplinary subject, thus providing a forum for its further development as a distinct engineering discipline. This is an essential step towards gaining a status equal to that enjoyed by the other engineering disciplines.