Sea-ice loss in Eurasian Arctic coast intensifies heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall associated with Indian Ocean warming

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00770-7

Xiaodan Chen, Zhiping Wen, Jiping Liu, Wei Mei, Ruonan Zhang, Sihua Huang, Yuanyuan Guo, Juncong Li

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Abstract

Heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall can pose threat to the dense population in East Asia by catastrophic flooding. Although previous studies have identified Indian Ocean (IO) warming as the major cause of heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall, it failed to predict the record-breaking rainfall in July 2020. Synthesizing observational analysis, large-ensemble climate simulations, and atmospheric simulations, we show that sea-ice loss in the Kara Sea in May can intensify the IO warming-induced heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall and well explains the record-breaking rainfall in July 2020. In the precondition of IO warming, sea-ice loss tends to prolong Meiyu-Baiu season and strengthen convective activity over the Meiyu-Baiu region, thereby enhancing the IO warming-induced heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by ~50% and doubling the risk of extreme events comparable to or greater than the one in 2020. A statistical model is further constructed to demonstrate that taking Arctic sea ice into consideration can significantly improve the seasonal prediction of extreme Meiyu-Baiu rainfall.

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欧亚北极沿岸海冰消失加剧了与印度洋变暖相关的梅雨-白雨季强降雨

梅雨-巴乌暴雨会对东亚人口稠密地区造成灾难性的洪水威胁。尽管之前的研究认为印度洋变暖是梅雨-白雨季暴雨的主要原因，但未能预测到 2020 年 7 月破纪录的降雨量。综合观测分析、大集合气候模拟和大气模拟，我们发现 5 月喀拉海的海冰损失会加剧 IO 变暖引起的梅雨-巴乌暴雨，并很好地解释了 2020 年 7 月的破纪录降雨。在IO变暖的先决条件下，海冰损失往往会延长美玉-白玉季节，并加强美玉-白玉地区的对流活动，从而使IO变暖引起的美玉-白玉暴雨增加约50%，并使极端事件的风险增加一倍，相当于或大于2020年的极端事件。进一步构建的统计模型表明，将北极海冰考虑在内可显著改善对梅雨-巴乌极端降雨的季节性预测。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.