Data-driven risk stratification and precision management of pulmonary nodules detected on chest computed tomography

Abstract

The widespread implementation of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in lung cancer screening has led to the increasing detection of pulmonary nodules. However, precisely evaluating the malignancy risk of pulmonary nodules remains a formidable challenge. Here we propose a triage-driven Chinese Lung Nodules Reporting and Data System (C-Lung-RADS) utilizing a medical checkup cohort of 45,064 cases. The system was operated in a stepwise fashion, initially distinguishing low-, mid-, high- and extremely high-risk nodules based on their size and density. Subsequently, it progressively integrated imaging information, demographic characteristics and follow-up data to pinpoint suspicious malignant nodules and refine the risk scale. The multidimensional system achieved a state-of-the-art performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.918 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.918–0.919) on the internal testing dataset, outperforming the single-dimensional approach (AUC of 0.881, 95% CI 0.880–0.882). Moreover, C-Lung-RADS exhibited a superior sensitivity compared with Lung-RADS v2022 (87.1% versus 63.3%) in an independent cohort, which was screened using mobile computed tomography scanners to broaden screening accessibility in resource-constrained settings. With its foundation in precise risk stratification and tailored management, this system has minimized unnecessary invasive procedures for low-risk cases and recommended prompt intervention for extremely high-risk nodules to avert diagnostic delays. This approach has the potential to enhance the decision-making paradigm and facilitate a more efficient diagnosis of lung cancer during routine checkups as well as screening scenarios. Trained on a cohort of 45,064 cases and validated on data acquired from mobile computed tomography scanners deployed in rural China, a lung cancer screening deep learning model is shown to outperform existing lung cancer risk scores.