Short-Term Load Probability Prediction Based on Integrated Feature Selection and GA-LSTM Quantile Regression

Abstract

Accurately forecasting electricity demand is crucial for maintaining the balance between supply and demand of electric energy in real-time, ensuring the reliability and cost-efficiency of power system operations. The integration of numerous active loads and distributed renewable energy sources into the grid has led to increased load variability, rendering the traditional point forecasting approach inadequate for meeting the evolving needs of the power system. Probabilistic forecasting, which predicts the complete probability distribution of loads and provides more extensive information on load uncertainty, has emerged as a key solution to address these challenges. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model, known for its strong performance in modeling long series, is commonly utilized in load forecasting. Therefore, this study focuses on short-term electric load probability forecasting for users in a specific park in Yantai. We propose a short-term load probability forecasting model based on integrated feature selection (IFS), genetic algorithm (GA) optimization of LSTM, and quantile regression (QR), referred to as the IFS-GA-QRLSTM model. Initially, the integrated feature selection method is employed to identify the most influential factors affecting electric load, optimizing the model’s input features and reducing data redundancy. To address the subjective nature of parameter selection in the LSTM model, we use a GA to optimize model parameters. The combination of optimized LSTM with QR enables direct generation of quantile load predictions, which are further used in kernel density estimation to construct the probability density distribution. We compare the proposed method with five basic models, QRLSTM, IFS-QRCNN, IFS-QRRNN, IFS-QRLSTM, and IFS-QRGRU, for point prediction, interval prediction, and probability prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method in this paper exhibits better prediction performance, smaller prediction errors, and greater effectiveness compared to the aforementioned models.