Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity

Abstract

Background

An influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer influenza peak in tropics/subtropics. Recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) had a U-shape relationship with influenza survival and transmission across climate zones, indicating that a unified influenza forecasting system could be established for China with various climate conditions.

Methods

Our study has generated weekly influenza forecasts by season and type/subtype in northern and southern China from 2011 to 2021, using a forecasting system combining an AH-driven susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Model performance was assessed by sensitivity and specificity in predicting epidemics, and by accuracies in predicting peak timing and magnitude.

Results

Our forecast system can generally well predict seasonal influenza epidemics (mean sensitivity>87.5%; mean specificity >80%). The average forecast accuracies were 82% and 60% for peak timing and magnitude at 3–6 weeks ahead for northern China, higher than those of 42% and 20% for southern China. The accuracy was generally better when the forecast was made closer to the actual peak time.

Discussion

The established AH-driven forecasting system can generally well predict the occurrence of seasonal influenza epidemics in China.