Exploring sustainable food system transformation options in China: An integrated environmental-economic modelling approach based on the applied general equilibrium framework

IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Our food system drives global environmental change, and differences in environmental concerns of consumers may cause negative environmental ‘spillover effects’ in less concerned countries. While food system transformation is increasingly recognised as crucial for mitigating such negative environmental spillovers, possible unintended negative environmental consequences in other regions and/or economic sectors have received less attention. Using an integrated environmental-economic modelling framework and scenario analyses, we explored options for more sustainable food systems and to mitigate the negative environmental spillovers from trading partners to China. We found that doubling novel soy-based food (soy-based meat) consumption while reducing pork consumption in China decreased Chinese economy-wide emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1 % and acidification pollutants by 3 %. However, it increased Chinese economy-wide emissions of eutrophication pollutants by 2 %, driven by the increased production of soy-based food and other food with relatively high emission intensities of eutrophication pollutants. Combining a dietary shift with the adoption of cleaner cereals production technology for half of the current resources used for cereals production decreased Chinese economy-wide emissions of GHGs by 1 %, acidification pollutants by 7 %, and eutrophication pollutants by 3 %, but required capital reallocation from other sectors. Implementing a unilateral environmental policy in China (i.e., implementing incentive-based emission permits to reduce emissions of all pollutants by 3 % annually) increased economy-wide emissions of GHGs in trading partners by 2 %. This ‘carbon leakage’ emerges due to the shift of production of products with relatively high emission intensities (i.e., nitrogen fertiliser and livestock) from China to its trading partners through international trade. We demonstrate that indirect environmental impacts are crucial to consider when analysing the economy-wide consequences of food system transformations, as these indirect impacts may inadvertently affect other regions and/or economic sectors that were not initially targeted. Our study offers policymakers insights into designing effective policies for more sustainable food systems and sheds light on trade-offs among competing environmental and economic goals.

探索中国可持续粮食系统转型方案:基于应用一般均衡框架的环境经济综合建模方法
我们的食品体系推动着全球环境的变化,而消费者对环境关注度的差异可能会对关注度较低的国家造成负面的环境 "溢出效应"。尽管人们越来越认识到,粮食系统的转型对于减轻这种负面环境溢出效应至关重要,但其他地区和/或经济部门可能出现的意外负面环境后果却较少受到关注。利用综合环境经济模型框架和情景分析,我们探索了更可持续的粮食系统和减轻贸易伙伴对中国的负面环境溢出效应的方案。我们发现,将中国的新型大豆食品(大豆肉类)消费量增加一倍,同时减少猪肉消费量,可使中国整个经济的温室气体排放量减少 1%,酸化污染物排放量减少 3%。然而,由于大豆食品和其他富营养化污染物排放强度相对较高的食品产量增加,中国整个经济的富营养化污染物排放量增加了 2%。将膳食结构转变与采用清洁谷物生产技术结合起来,目前谷物生产所用资源的一半将使中国整个经济的温室气体排放量减少 1%,酸化污染物排放量减少 7%,富营养化污染物排放量减少 3%,但需要从其他部门重新分配资本。在中国实施单边环境政策(即实施基于激励的排放许可,每年减少所有污染物排放 3%),会使贸易伙伴的整体经济温室气体排放量增加 2%。这种 "碳泄漏 "的出现是由于排放强度相对较高的产品(如氮肥和牲畜)的生产通过国际贸易从中国转移到了贸易伙伴国。我们证明,在分析粮食系统转型对整个经济的影响时,间接环境影响是必须考虑的关键因素,因为这些间接影响可能会无意中影响到其他地区和/或经济部门,而这些地区和/或经济部门并非最初的目标。我们的研究为政策制定者设计更可持续的粮食系统的有效政策提供了见解,并揭示了相互竞争的环境和经济目标之间的权衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Production and Consumption
Sustainable Production and Consumption Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
CiteScore
17.40
自引率
7.40%
发文量
389
审稿时长
13 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable production and consumption refers to the production and utilization of goods and services in a way that benefits society, is economically viable, and has minimal environmental impact throughout its entire lifespan. Our journal is dedicated to publishing top-notch interdisciplinary research and practical studies in this emerging field. We take a distinctive approach by examining the interplay between technology, consumption patterns, and policy to identify sustainable solutions for both production and consumption systems.
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