Integrating calibrated PTFs and modified OpenKarHydro framework to map the responses of ecohydrological processes to climate change across the Loess Plateau

Abstract

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of soil water stress, soil erosion and ecological degradation in the Loess Plateau (CLP). However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecohydrological processes, including soil water balance (SWB), soil erosion (SE) and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), in response to climate change remain isolated and ambiguous. Additionally, existing studies often rely on limited measured data from specific watersheds with particular land use/cover types to establish the pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for single soil hydraulic parameter (SHP). There is a notable lack of comprehensive studies that explore PTFs encompassing all SHPs applicable to the entire CLP, predict the spatiotemporal response of ecohydrological processes to climate change, and identify future risk periods and regions for SWB, SE, and NPP. To address these gaps, we first screened the PTFs applicable for the whole CLP, and then projected the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecohydrological processes from 2020 to 2030 under CMIP6 scenarios by integrating the PTFs with the OpenKarHydro, RUSLE, and CASA model, and finally classified the soil water content, SE and NPP to identify their risk periods and regions. The results showed that the PTFs achieved satisfactory accuracy, with RMSEs for Ks, θs, θr, α, n, θfc and θw being 2.682, 0.109, 0.016, 0.111, 0.897, 0.060 and 0.058, BIASs of 1.365, 0.182, 0.012, 0.031, 0.214, 0.057 and 0.048, R²s of 0.445, 0.500, 0.430, 0.400, 0.694, 0.453 and 0.453, and NSEs of 0.645, 0.737, 0.874, 0.349, 0.567, 0.756 and 0.458, respectively. SE decreased significantly from 2020 to 2030, with an average annual rate of −6.18 %. Soil water storage decreased significantly between 2020 and 2030, and declining from southeast to northwest. The proportion of area in the wet zone decreased by 4 %, while the proportion of area in the dry zone increased by 11.9 % from 2020 to 2030. The average NPP in 2020–2030 is 320.07 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹, with the largest in summer and smallest in winter, and decreasing from southeast to northwest. The NPP increased significantly in 2020–2030, with average annual value and rate of 19.61 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹ and 70.84 %, respectively. The NPP increased significantly in spring, summer and autumn, but remained stable in winter. This investigation bridges the gap between existing soil properties, missing SHPs, the strong regional applicability of PTFs, and isolated ecohydrological processes. It is promises to provide valuable insights into the response to climate change in the CLP and another water-limited regions.