The dynamic evolution characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations and health risk assessment during typical forest fires in China

Abstract

In the context of climate change, increasingly frequent wildfire events are exacerbating the air quality crisis in China and have become a significant source of atmospheric PM_2.5. This study selected 12 major forest wildfire events in China from 2018 to 2023. Using atmospheric pollutant and component concentration data, as well as meteorological data, the study employed MK trend analysis, forward trajectory simulation, potential source contribution function (PSCF), and health risk indices to investigate the evolution patterns of PM_2.5 concentrations before and after each wildfire event. The study explored the driving role of meteorological factors in this evolution process and quantitatively analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of health risks in surrounding cities post-wildfire. The results indicated that: 1) PM_2.5 levels changed significantly before and after each wildfire event, although the proportion of components remained relatively stable. 2) PM_2.5 concentrations exhibited varying characteristics within different buffer zones of the wildfire areas. In the forest wildfire events in Foshan, Guangdong Province, and Jinzhong, Shanxi Province, the average PM_2.5 concentrations within the 50 km buffer zones reached approximately 90 μg/m³, about 4–5 times the multi-year average for these areas. 3) Wildfire emissions were mainly influenced by meteorological and topographical factors. Wind field dependence diagrams showed that PM_2.5 tended to accumulate in all wind directions, particularly at lower wind speeds of 0–5 m/s 4) Potential source analysis revealed that PM_2.5 emissions from wildfires posed significant risks to surrounding areas. Multiple events had high-risk areas (WPSCF ≥0.8), and among the cities in these high-risk areas, the health risk value (ΔM) for Ya'an City reached an extremely high 85.1. This study provides a theoretical basis for policymakers to develop locally tailored wildfire management policies, ensuring the protection of the public's right to breathe clean air.