Future changes in agrometeorological extremes in the southern Mediterranean region: When and where will they affect croplands and wheatlands?

IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
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Abstract

Climate change and extremes are increasingly threatening food security, especially in the Global South. Here, we examine how croplands and wheatlands of the southern Mediterranean region could be affected by projected changes in agrometeorological extremes over the 21st century. We use 17 bias-corrected climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to identify potential trends and assess the time of emergence of significant changes in agrometeorological extremes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP3–7.0). We note that simulated historical trends in agrometeorological extremes closely match observed trends, here derived from ERA5land, over croplands. Our analysis of CMIP6 projected scenarios reveals a consistent rise in heat intensity, drought intensity, and the frequency of compound dry and hot (D5/H95) days. While a reduction in frost intensity, combined with fewer wet and cold (W95/C5) and dry and cold (D5/C5) events offer some mitigation potential, concerns about water scarcity due to heightened heat and drought stresses may overshadow these benefits. These changes in agrometeorological extremes are projected to emerge in the near- and mid-term future (by 2030 and 2050). We also note that the projected decreases in cold extremes affect smaller agricultural regions than the increases in extreme heat. We find higher likelihoods of negative agrometeorological impacts over croplands and wheatlands throughout the 21st century, which could significantly challenge crop yields and agricultural sustainability. Without proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies, food security could come increasingly under threat in a changing climate in the southern Mediterranean region.

地中海南部地区极端农业气象的未来变化:它们将在何时何地影响耕地和麦田?
气候变化和极端气候正日益威胁着粮食安全,尤其是在全球南部地区。在此,我们研究了地中海南部地区的耕地和麦田如何受到 21 世纪极端农业气象变化的影响。我们利用耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)第六阶段的 17 个偏差校正气候模式来确定潜在趋势,并评估在共享社会经济路径(SSP3-7.0)下农业气象极端变化出现的时间。我们注意到,模拟的极端农业气象历史趋势与耕地上的观测趋势非常吻合,这里的观测趋势来自ERA5land。我们对 CMIP6 预测情景的分析表明,高温强度、干旱强度以及复合干热日(D5/H95)的频率持续上升。虽然霜冻强度的降低以及湿冷(W95/C5)和干冷(D5/C5)事件的减少具有一定的缓解潜力,但由于高温和干旱压力的增加而导致的缺水问题可能会掩盖这些益处。预计农业气象极端事件的这些变化将在近期和中期(到 2030 年和 2050 年)出现。我们还注意到,与极端高温的增加相比,预计极端低温的减少对农业地区的影响较小。我们发现,在整个 21 世纪,耕地和小麦地受到负面农业气象影响的可能性较高,这可能对作物产量和农业可持续性构成重大挑战。如果没有积极的适应和缓解战略,地中海南部地区的粮食安全可能会在不断变化的气候中受到越来越大的威胁。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.30
自引率
9.70%
发文量
415
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology is an international journal for the publication of original articles and reviews on the inter-relationship between meteorology, agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Emphasis is on basic and applied scientific research relevant to practical problems in the field of plant and soil sciences, ecology and biogeochemistry as affected by weather as well as climate variability and change. Theoretical models should be tested against experimental data. Articles must appeal to an international audience. Special issues devoted to single topics are also published. Typical topics include canopy micrometeorology (e.g. canopy radiation transfer, turbulence near the ground, evapotranspiration, energy balance, fluxes of trace gases), micrometeorological instrumentation (e.g., sensors for trace gases, flux measurement instruments, radiation measurement techniques), aerobiology (e.g. the dispersion of pollen, spores, insects and pesticides), biometeorology (e.g. the effect of weather and climate on plant distribution, crop yield, water-use efficiency, and plant phenology), forest-fire/weather interactions, and feedbacks from vegetation to weather and the climate system.
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