Hazard assessment of rice cold damage based on energy balance in paddy field

IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
Xueke Yan , Ying Guo , Bing Ma , Yunmeng Zhao , Suri Guga , Jiquan Zhang , Xingpeng Liu , Zhijun Tong , Chunli Zhao
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Abstract

Cold stress seriously affects rice yield in Northeast China and, as a result of climate change, there are new trends in the characterization of cold damage. Accurate simulation of water temperature in paddy fields and assessment of cold damage hazard can contribute to improving the accuracy of agrometeorological disaster risk assessment in the context of climate change. Hence, in this study, first, we simulated the water temperature of paddy fields based on the paddy field energy-balance model and evaluated the simulation results. Subsequently, a composite cooling-degree-day (CCDD) indicator for rice fields was constructed based on water and air temperatures to characterize cold stress and identify cold damage events. Finally, a cold damage hazard-assessment model was constructed for rice based on the frequency and intensity of cold damage to assess cold damage hazard in Northeast China from 1979 to 2018. The results showed that the root-mean-square error between simulated and observed water temperatures of the rice field energy-balance model was 0.45, which means that the model accurately simulated the water temperature of the rice field on a large spatial scale. In 2004, cold damage to late-maturity rice accounted for 30% of the total study area, which was one of the years with most severe cold damage in late-maturity rice-growing areas thus far in the 21st century. Water temperature affected 76.4% of the area in 2004, and was related to radiation and saturated vapor pressure. The low-hazard areas accounted for more than 20% in 2009–2018, and the high-hazard areas were still higher than 10%, indicating that the threat of cold damage in the northeastern region of China remained severe as the climate has become increasingly warm.

Abstract Image

基于稻田能量平衡的水稻冷害危害评估
寒冷胁迫严重影响了中国东北地区的水稻产量,而且由于气候变化的影响,冷害的特征描述也出现了新的趋势。准确模拟水田水温,评估冷害危害,有助于提高气候变化背景下农业气象灾害风险评估的准确性。因此,本研究首先基于水田能量平衡模型模拟了水田水温,并对模拟结果进行了评估。随后,根据水温和气温构建了稻田综合降温度日(CCDD)指标,以表征冷胁迫并识别冷害事件。最后,根据冷害发生频率和强度构建了水稻冷害危害评估模型,以评估1979-2018年中国东北地区的冷害危害。结果表明,稻田能量平衡模型模拟水温与观测水温的均方根误差为0.45,说明该模型在大空间尺度上准确模拟了稻田水温。2004 年晚稻冷害面积占研究总面积的 30%,是 21 世纪以来晚稻种植区冷害最严重的年份之一。2004 年,76.4%的区域受到水温影响,这与辐射和饱和蒸汽压有关。2009-2018 年低灾区占 20%以上,高灾区仍高于 10%,说明随着气候变暖,我国东北地区冷害威胁依然严重。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.30
自引率
9.70%
发文量
415
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology is an international journal for the publication of original articles and reviews on the inter-relationship between meteorology, agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Emphasis is on basic and applied scientific research relevant to practical problems in the field of plant and soil sciences, ecology and biogeochemistry as affected by weather as well as climate variability and change. Theoretical models should be tested against experimental data. Articles must appeal to an international audience. Special issues devoted to single topics are also published. Typical topics include canopy micrometeorology (e.g. canopy radiation transfer, turbulence near the ground, evapotranspiration, energy balance, fluxes of trace gases), micrometeorological instrumentation (e.g., sensors for trace gases, flux measurement instruments, radiation measurement techniques), aerobiology (e.g. the dispersion of pollen, spores, insects and pesticides), biometeorology (e.g. the effect of weather and climate on plant distribution, crop yield, water-use efficiency, and plant phenology), forest-fire/weather interactions, and feedbacks from vegetation to weather and the climate system.
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