{"title":"Why and how did the COVID pandemic end abruptly?","authors":"Marcelo A. Moret, James C. Phillips","doi":"10.1140/epjb/s10051-024-00733-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Phase transition theory, implemented quantitatively by thermodynamic scaling, has explained the evolution of Coronavirus’ extremely high contagiousness caused by a few key mutations from CoV2003 to CoV2019 identified among hundreds, as well as the later 2021 evolution to Omicron caused by 30 mutations. It also showed that the 2022 strain BA.5 with five mutations began a new path. Here we show that the early 2023 strains BKK with one stiffening mutation confirm that path, and the single flexing mutation of a later 2023 variant EG.5 strengthens it further. The few mutations of the new path have greatly reduced pandemic deaths, for mechanical reasons proposed here.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3>\n<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div><div><p>Surprisingly abrupt drop in COVID death rate</p></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":787,"journal":{"name":"The European Physical Journal B","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1140/epjb/s10051-024-00733-0.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The European Physical Journal B","FirstCategoryId":"4","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjb/s10051-024-00733-0","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PHYSICS, CONDENSED MATTER","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Phase transition theory, implemented quantitatively by thermodynamic scaling, has explained the evolution of Coronavirus’ extremely high contagiousness caused by a few key mutations from CoV2003 to CoV2019 identified among hundreds, as well as the later 2021 evolution to Omicron caused by 30 mutations. It also showed that the 2022 strain BA.5 with five mutations began a new path. Here we show that the early 2023 strains BKK with one stiffening mutation confirm that path, and the single flexing mutation of a later 2023 variant EG.5 strengthens it further. The few mutations of the new path have greatly reduced pandemic deaths, for mechanical reasons proposed here.
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