Achieving net-zero power supply in China needs better cost uncertainty quantification

IF 7.9 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
P.Y. Hu, M.S. Zhao, Y.T. Xu, L.T. Hu, J.W. Liang, J. Meng, C. Zhang
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Abstract

Achieving net-zero power supply in China will require massive investments over the coming decades. Precise cost uncertainty quantification is essential to align this transition with economic and policy realities. Here, we report an analysis addressing this need by introducing a cost uncertainty estimation framework, integrating meta-analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probabilistic cost forecasting. Our findings reveal significant cost uncertainties for China’s energy transition from 2020 to the end of the century, estimated to be between 15.1 and 62.7 trillion US dollars for the 1.5°C scenario and 12.9–50.8 trillion US dollars for the 2°C scenario. The lower end of these estimates suggests that China’s net-zero power supply transition could be more cost effective than previously anticipated. However, the feasibility of these transitions largely depends on the availability of low-cost capital, highlighting the urgent need to develop strategies that accelerate clean energy finance and reduce investment hesitation.

Abstract Image

在中国实现零净电力供应需要更好的成本不确定性量化
中国要实现零净电力供应,需要在未来几十年内进行大规模投资。精确的成本不确定性量化对于使这一过渡符合经济和政策现实至关重要。在此,我们通过引入成本不确定性估算框架,整合元分析、蒙特卡罗模拟和概率成本预测,报告了一项针对这一需求的分析。我们的研究结果表明,从 2020 年到本世纪末,中国能源转型的成本存在巨大的不确定性,估计 1.5°C 情景下的成本在 15.1 万亿美元到 62.7 万亿美元之间,2°C 情景下的成本在 12.9 万亿美元到 50.8 万亿美元之间。这些估计值的下限表明,中国的净零电力供应转型可能比之前预期的更具成本效益。然而,这些转型的可行性在很大程度上取决于低成本资本的可用性,这突出表明迫切需要制定战略,加快清洁能源融资,减少投资犹豫。
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来源期刊
Cell Reports Physical Science
Cell Reports Physical Science Energy-Energy (all)
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
2.20%
发文量
388
审稿时长
62 days
期刊介绍: Cell Reports Physical Science, a premium open-access journal from Cell Press, features high-quality, cutting-edge research spanning the physical sciences. It serves as an open forum fostering collaboration among physical scientists while championing open science principles. Published works must signify significant advancements in fundamental insight or technological applications within fields such as chemistry, physics, materials science, energy science, engineering, and related interdisciplinary studies. In addition to longer articles, the journal considers impactful short-form reports and short reviews covering recent literature in emerging fields. Continually adapting to the evolving open science landscape, the journal reviews its policies to align with community consensus and best practices.
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