Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones (MTCs). This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific. Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020, four distinct circulation patterns are identified: the monsoon trough (MT) pattern, accounting for 40.3% of occurrences, the confluence zone (CON) pattern at 26.2%, the easterly wave (EW) pattern at 17.8%, and the monsoon gyre (MG) pattern at 15.7%. The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough, with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks. The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the monsoon trough, with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge. The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows, with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train. MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows. A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity, while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns. The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy, acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.