Hemispheric Sunspot Number Prediction for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using Spectral Analysis and Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

The present study uses machine learning and time series spectral analysis to develop a novel technique to forecast the sunspot number (S_N) in both hemispheres for the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 and Solar Cycle 26. This enables us to offer predictions for hemispheric S_N until January 2038 (using the 13-month running average). For the Northern hemisphere, we find maximum peak values for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 of 58.5 in April 2023 and 51.5 in November 2033, respectively (root mean square error of 6.1). For the Southern hemisphere, the predicted maximum peak values for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are 77.0 in September 2024 and 70.1 in November 2034, respectively (root mean square error of 6.8). In this sense, the results presented here predict a Southern hemisphere prevalence over the Northern hemisphere, in terms of S_N, for Solar Cycles 25 and 26, thus continuing a trend that began around 1980, after the last period of Northern hemisphere prevalence (which, in turn, started around 1900). On the other hand, for both hemispheres, our findings predict lower maxima for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 than the preceding cycles. This fact implies that, when predicting the total S_N as the sum of the two hemispheric forecasts, Solar Cycles 24 – 26 may be part of a centennial Gleissberg cycle’s minimum, as was the case in the final years of the 19th century and the start of the 20th century (Solar Cycles 12, 13, and 14).