A logic-tree based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the central ionian islands of cephalonia and ithaca (Western Greece)

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
George Kaviris, Angelos Zymvragakis, Vasilis Kapetanidis, Vasiliki Kouskouna, Ioannis Spingos, Nikolaos Sakellariou, Nicholas Voulgaris
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Abstract

The Central Ionian Islands of Cephalonia and Ithaca belong to the most seismically active Greek region, mainly due to the presence of the dextral Cephalonia-Lefkada Transform Fault Zone. The study area has experienced strong earthquakes in the twentieth century, including the destructive 1953 sequence with maximum intensity 9.0. The Paliki peninsula, western Cephalonia, hosted two strong earthquakes (Mw = 6.1 and 5.8) in 2014, with ground acceleration reaching ~ 560 cm/s2 and 735 cm/s2, respectively. This study updates the seismic hazard evaluation in Cephalonia and Ithaca using new data and computational techniques to reduce epistemic uncertainties. The probabilistic approach of Cornell and McGuire was used, and the uncertainties are reduced through data variability of the source models, seismicity data, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations using a logic tree approach, sampled by implementing the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The spatial distribution of Peak Ground Acceleration and Peak Ground Velocity for return periods of 475 and 950 years indicates low variation in the entire study area and that the Paliki peninsula possesses the highest level of seismic hazard. Additionally, site-specific analysis across the three main towns, Lixouri and Argostoli in Cephalonia and Vathi in Ithaca, reveals that Lixouri has the highest level of seismic hazard, while Vathi the lowest.

Abstract Image

对塞法罗尼亚岛和伊萨卡岛(希腊西部)进行基于逻辑树的概率地震危害评估
塞法罗尼亚和伊萨卡的中爱奥尼亚群岛属于希腊地震最活跃的地区,这主要是由于存在右旋的塞法罗尼亚-莱夫卡达转换断裂带。研究区域在二十世纪曾发生过强烈地震,包括 1953 年发生的破坏性地震,最大地震烈度为 9.0 级。2014 年,西塞法利尼亚的帕利基半岛发生了两次强烈地震(Mw = 6.1 和 5.8),地面加速度分别达到 ~ 560 cm/s2 和 735 cm/s2。本研究利用新数据和计算技术更新了塞法罗尼亚和伊萨卡的地震灾害评估,以减少认识上的不确定性。采用了康奈尔和麦奎尔的概率方法,并通过使用逻辑树方法对震源模型、地震数据和地动预测方程进行数据变异,并通过实施拉丁超立方采样法进行采样,从而降低了不确定性。重现期分别为 475 年和 950 年的峰值地加速度和峰值地速度的空间分布表明,整个研究区域的变化较小,帕利基半岛的地震危害程度最高。此外,对三个主要城镇(Cephalonia 的 Lixouri 和 Argostoli 以及 Ithaca 的 Vathi)的具体地点分析表明,Lixouri 的地震危害程度最高,而 Vathi 的地震危害程度最低。
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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
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