Parametric study of correlation of mainshock-aftershock ground motions based on Copula theory

IF 1.6 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Seismology Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI:10.1007/s10950-024-10238-z

Ziyan Wang, Xiaojun Li, Su Chen, Lei Fu, Bin Zhang, Xianwei Liu, Yanjun Zhu

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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of aftershocks on hazard assessment and disaster prevention by examining three main characteristics of strong ground motions: amplitude, spectrum, and duration. A total of 6414 accelerograms were compiled from 26 selected mainshock-aftershock events in the Yalong River Basin, China, Japan, and Turkey. The aim is to investigate the correlation between mainshocks and aftershocks using Copula theory and seven representative intensity measures: peak ground acceleration (PGA), cumulative absolute velocity (CAV), peak ground velocity (PGV), Arias intensity, significant duration, mean frequency and predominant frequency of Fourier amplitude spectrum. The findings reveal a moderate to strong non-linear correlation among the seven intensity measures of mainshocks and aftershocks. This non-linear correlation can be effectively captured using Gumbel, Gaussian, and t-Copula functions. Under the conditions of the optimal Copula joint distribution model among the given intensity measures and the mainshock intensity measures, the Copula conditional prediction model for aftershocks accurately reflects the values of aftershock intensity measures. This approach demonstrates the effectiveness of Copula theory in studying the correlation between mainshock and aftershock intensity measures. It offers a novel method for determining aftershock intensity measures and investigating correlations among multivariate random variables.

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基于 Copula 理论的主震-余震地面运动相关性参数研究

本研究通过考察强地震动的三个主要特征：振幅、频谱和持续时间，研究余震对灾害评估和灾害预防的影响。研究人员从雅砻江流域、中国、日本和土耳其的 26 个选定的主震-余震事件中汇编了共计 6414 个加速度图。目的是利用 Copula 理论和七种有代表性的强度测量方法：峰值地面加速度 (PGA)、累积绝对速度 (CAV)、峰值地面速度 (PGV)、阿里亚斯强度、显著持续时间、傅里叶振幅谱的平均频率和主导频率，研究主震和余震之间的相关性。研究结果表明，主震和余震的七种强度测量值之间存在中度到高度的非线性相关性。使用 Gumbel、高斯和 t-Copula 函数可以有效地捕捉这种非线性相关性。在给定强度测量值与主震强度测量值之间的最佳 Copula 联合分布模型条件下，余震的 Copula 条件预测模型能准确地反映余震强度测量值。这种方法证明了 Copula 理论在研究主震和余震强度测量值之间相关性方面的有效性。它为确定余震强度测量值和研究多元随机变量之间的相关性提供了一种新方法。

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来源期刊

Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.