Predicting superagers: a machine learning approach utilizing gut microbiome features

Abstract

ObjectiveCognitive decline is often considered an inevitable aspect of aging; however, recent research has identified a subset of older adults known as “superagers” who maintain cognitive abilities comparable to those of younger individuals. Investigating the neurobiological characteristics associated with superior cognitive function in superagers is essential for understanding “successful aging.” Evidence suggests that the gut microbiome plays a key role in brain function, forming a bidirectional communication network known as the microbiome-gut-brain axis. Alterations in the gut microbiome have been linked to cognitive aging markers such as oxidative stress and inflammation. This study aims to investigate the unique patterns of the gut microbiome in superagers and to develop machine learning-based predictive models to differentiate superagers from typical agers.MethodsWe recruited 161 cognitively unimpaired, community-dwelling volunteers aged 60 years or from dementia prevention centers in Seoul, South Korea. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 115 participants were included in the study. Following the removal of microbiome data outliers, 102 participants, comprising 57 superagers and 45 typical agers, were finally analyzed. Superagers were defined based on memory performance at or above average normative values of middle-aged adults. Gut microbiome data were collected from stool samples, and microbial DNA was extracted and sequenced. Relative abundances of bacterial genera were used as features for model development. We employed the LightGBM algorithm to build predictive models and utilized SHAP analysis for feature importance and interpretability.ResultsThe predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.832 and accuracy of 0.764 in the training dataset, and an AUC of 0.861 and accuracy of 0.762 in the test dataset. Significant microbiome features for distinguishing superagers included Alistipes, PAC001137_g, PAC001138_g, Leuconostoc, and PAC001115_g. SHAP analysis revealed that higher abundances of certain genera, such as PAC001138_g and PAC001115_g, positively influenced the likelihood of being classified as superagers.ConclusionOur findings demonstrate the machine learning-based predictive models using gut-microbiome features can differentiate superagers from typical agers with a reasonable performance.