Observed and projected declines in glacier albedo across the Third Pole in the 21st century

IF 15.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Shaoting Ren, Li Jia, Evan S. Miles, Massimo Menenti, Marin Kneib, Thomas E. Shaw, Pascal Buri, Michael J. McCarthy, Wei Yang, Francesca Pellicciotti, Tandong Yao
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Abstract

Glaciers are crucial water resources in the Third Pole (the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings) and are shrinking in response to climate change. Glacier albedo is an expression of glacier interactions with climate and dust/black carbon, and albedo reduction enhances glacier mass loss, but its changes and potential drivers remain poorly quantified. We leverage satellite observations to explore the variability of glacier albedo and understand its sensitivity to potential drivers and its future evolution. We find that glacier albedo has declined during 2001–2020, but high interannual variability is also an important signal. These variations are highly sensitive to air temperature and snow conditions and to nearby dust/black carbon emission sources. Future changes to these drivers will lead to further decreases of 2.9%–12.5% in glacier albedo by 2100 under different warming scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of albedo in glacier future evolution and the urgency of action to mitigate climate warming.

Abstract Image

21 世纪第三极冰川反照率下降的观测结果和预测结果
冰川是第三极(青藏高原及其周边地区)的重要水资源,随着气候变化而不断缩小。冰川反照率是冰川与气候和灰尘/黑碳相互作用的一种表现形式,反照率的降低会加剧冰川的质量损失,但其变化和潜在的驱动因素仍然很少被量化。我们利用卫星观测来探索冰川反照率的变化,了解其对潜在驱动因素的敏感性及其未来演变。我们发现冰川反照率在 2001-2020 年间有所下降,但年际变化大也是一个重要信号。这些变化对气温和积雪条件以及附近的尘埃/黑碳排放源高度敏感。在不同的变暖情景下,这些驱动因素的未来变化将导致冰川反照率到2100年进一步下降2.9%-12.5%。这些发现凸显了反照率在冰川未来演变中的重要性,以及采取行动减缓气候变暖的紧迫性。
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来源期刊
One Earth
One Earth Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
18.90
自引率
1.90%
发文量
159
期刊介绍: One Earth, Cell Press' flagship sustainability journal, serves as a platform for high-quality research and perspectives that contribute to a deeper understanding and resolution of contemporary sustainability challenges. With monthly thematic issues, the journal aims to bridge gaps between natural, social, and applied sciences, along with the humanities. One Earth fosters the cross-pollination of ideas, inspiring transformative research to address the complexities of sustainability.
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