Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)

Abstract

Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO₂ reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO₂ reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO₂ response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (α) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO₂ relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (ϵ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO₂ in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO₂ equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.