A methodology for appropriate withdrawal of tsunami warnings based on numerical simulations

Abstract

This study performed large-scale numerical simulations for predicting the attenuation of tsunamis caused by the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, and 2010 Maule, Chile earthquakes, recorded at Japanese tide gauges. Tsunami amplitude waveforms were generated by computing the moving root-mean-square of the data for quantitative analyses. Sensitivity analysis showed that tsunami nonlinearity and computational grid intervals near the tide gauges significantly impact the prediction of tsunami attenuation. The predicted withdrawal times of tsunami warnings agreed with the observations; however, time discrepancies were observed for advisory withdrawals at several stations. Using the proposed method, we predicted the warning period of a great interplate earthquake in the Nankai Trough to be approximately one day. These findings can provide critical information for disaster prevention because the withdrawal of warnings is directly related to permission to enter coastal areas affected by the tsunami, whereas unnecessarily long warnings hinder rescue operations.