Identifying the effect of floods on transportation systems in desertic countries by estimation and comparison of two models: propensity score matching and difference-in-differences

Abstract

Transportation systems support economic activity by facilitating the mobility of people and goods. The main weather-related impact on the transportation industry is flooding, particularly due to heavy rainstorms. Therefore, considering the flooding in Kuwait that occurred in November 2018, this research aims to identify the effect of the floods on the transportation system by estimation and comparison of two models: propensity score matching and difference-in-differences. The impact of flooding has been verified for frequency, time of travel, and car expenses. The results showed that the parameters of the transportation system such as frequency of travel, its duration, and car expenses are significantly affected by the floods in a negative way. Moreover, floods are negatively associated with only two governates, which are Al Asimah Governate and Hawalli Governate. However, flood risk and expectation of flood severity have a significant positive impact on the flood experience. The propensity score matching was more reliable since it describes the data better. Based on experts’ opinion, the design of the roads is the main cause of flooding in Kuwait. It is recommended to construct precast box culvert to prevent floods.