The effects of ambient temperature on non-accidental mortality in the elderly hypertensive subjects, a cohort-based study

Abstract

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has yielded inconclusive results with previous studies relying on in-patient data to assess the health effects of temperature. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on non-accidental mortality among elderly hypertensive patients through a prospective cohort study conducted in northeastern China. A total of 9634 elderly hypertensive patients from the Kailuan research who participated in the baseline survey and follow-up from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2017, were included in the study. We employed a Poisson generalized linear regression model to estimate the effects of monthly ambient temperature and temperature variations on non-accidental mortality. After adjusting for meteorological parameters, the monthly mean temperature (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.984–0.993, p < 0.001), minimum temperature (RR = 0.987, 95% CI: 0.983–0.992, p < 0.001) and maximum temperature (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.985–0.994, p < 0.001) exhibited a negative association with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality. The presence of higher monthly temperature variation was significantly associated with an elevated risk of mortality (RR = 1.097, 95% CI:1.051–1.146, p < 0.001). Further stratified analysis revealed that these associations were more pronounced during colder months as well as among male and older individuals. Decreased temperature and greater variations in ambient temperature were observed to be linked with non-accidental mortality among elderly hypertensive patients, particularly notable within aging populations and males. These understanding regarding the effects of ambient temperature on mortality holds clinical significance for appropriate treatment strategies targeting these individuals while also serving as an indicator for heightened risk of death.