The Impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming and Oceanic Forcing on the Frequency of Quasi-stationary Band-Shaped Precipitation Systems, “Senjo-Kousuitai”, during the Rainy Season of 2023

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI:10.2151/sola.20a-002

Shun-ichi I. Watanabe, Hiroaki Kawase, Yukiko Imada, Yasutaka Hirockawa

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Abstract

“Senjo-kousuitai” is a quasi-stationary band-shaped precipitation system (QSBPSs). Its frequency of occurrence over Japan during the 2023 rainy season was higher than usual, especially in Kyushu. This paper evaluates the impact of historical anthropogenic global warming and natural variability on the frequency of QSBPSs using risk-based event attribution based on a 100-ensemble regional climate simulation with 5-km grid spacing. In the historical ensemble experiments, the frequency of QSBPSs during the 2023 rainy season exceeded that expected in a typical year. The re-analysis and the ensemble experiment showed a westward extension of the Pacific subtropical high that led to an enhanced water vapor flux over Kyushu, indicating that this synoptic condition was forced by the global distribution of sea surface temperature during the 2023 rainy season. A comparison between historical and non-warming experiments demonstrated that historical anthropogenic global warming increases the occurrence probability of QSBPSs. The rising temperature results in a higher frequency of inflow of large amounts of water vapor, which facilitates the development of QSBPSs. In addition, the decrease in atmospheric stability at low levels, caused by the increase in sea surface temperature, is likely to contribute to an increasing probability of QSBPSs.

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人为全球变暖和海洋强迫对 2023 年雨季准静止带状降水系统 "千丈光辉 "频率的影响

"千丈光辉 "是一种准静止带状降水系统（QSBPSs）。在 2023 年雨季期间，它在日本上空出现的频率高于往年，尤其是在九州地区。本文基于网格间距为 5 千米的 100 个集合区域气候模拟，采用基于风险的事件归因方法，评估了历史人为全球变暖和自然变率对准静止带状降水系统频率的影响。在历史集合实验中，2023 年雨季的 QSBPS 发生频率超过了一般年份的预期。再分析和集合实验显示，太平洋副热带高气压向西延伸，导致九州上空的水汽通量增加，这表明在 2023 年雨季期间，全球海面温度分布迫使出现了这种天气条件。历史实验和非气候变暖实验之间的比较表明，历史上的人为全球变暖增加了 QSBPS 的发生概率。气温升高导致大量水汽更频繁地流入，从而促进了 QSBPS 的发展。此外，海面温度上升导致低层大气稳定性下降，也可能导致 QSBPS 发生概率增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.