{"title":"Risk factors and a prediction model for pain recurrence after pancreatic stent removal in painful chronic pancreatitis.","authors":"Tetsuya Takikawa,Kiyoshi Kume,Yu Tanaka,Kazuhiro Kikuta,Yohei Ogata,Waku Hatta,Shin Hamada,Shin Miura,Ryotaro Matsumoto,Takanori Sano,Akira Sasaki,Hidehiro Hayashi,Misako Sakano,Tomoo Manaka,Atsushi Masamune","doi":"10.1097/mpa.0000000000002392","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVES\r\nEndoscopic pancreatic stenting (EPS) is an effective treatment modality for painful chronic pancreatitis. However, little is known about the factors that cause pain recurrence after stent removal, and there are no clear criteria for stent removal. We aimed to develop a prediction model for pain recurrence by identifying its risk factors.\r\n\r\nMETHODS\r\nWe retrospectively reviewed 95 patients who underwent EPS due to pain for the first time using a single plastic stent between January 2007 and July 2022 at our institute. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the risk factors for pain recurrence, and a prediction model was developed based on the identified factors.\r\n\r\nRESULTS\r\nOf the 95 enrolled patients, 89 (93.7%) achieved pain relief and 73 (76.8%) did stent removal. Of the 69 patients with a follow-up period ≥6 months after stent removal, 29 (42.0%) had pain recurrence during the median follow-up period of 59 months. Serum lipase level (p = 0.034) and pancreatic parenchymal thickness (p = 0.022) on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging were identified as independent risk factors for pain recurrence. The prediction model based on the identified factors had good discrimination ability, with a concordance index of 0.74, and could stratify pain recurrence rates.\r\n\r\nCONCLUSIONS\r\nWe identified the risk factors and developed a new prediction model for pain recurrence following stent removal. This model might be useful for decision-making in pancreatic stent management, such as deciding whether to remove a pancreatic stent, continue EPS, or convert to surgery.","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pancreas","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mpa.0000000000002392","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Endoscopic pancreatic stenting (EPS) is an effective treatment modality for painful chronic pancreatitis. However, little is known about the factors that cause pain recurrence after stent removal, and there are no clear criteria for stent removal. We aimed to develop a prediction model for pain recurrence by identifying its risk factors.
METHODS
We retrospectively reviewed 95 patients who underwent EPS due to pain for the first time using a single plastic stent between January 2007 and July 2022 at our institute. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the risk factors for pain recurrence, and a prediction model was developed based on the identified factors.
RESULTS
Of the 95 enrolled patients, 89 (93.7%) achieved pain relief and 73 (76.8%) did stent removal. Of the 69 patients with a follow-up period ≥6 months after stent removal, 29 (42.0%) had pain recurrence during the median follow-up period of 59 months. Serum lipase level (p = 0.034) and pancreatic parenchymal thickness (p = 0.022) on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging were identified as independent risk factors for pain recurrence. The prediction model based on the identified factors had good discrimination ability, with a concordance index of 0.74, and could stratify pain recurrence rates.
CONCLUSIONS
We identified the risk factors and developed a new prediction model for pain recurrence following stent removal. This model might be useful for decision-making in pancreatic stent management, such as deciding whether to remove a pancreatic stent, continue EPS, or convert to surgery.
期刊介绍:
Pancreas provides a central forum for communication of original works involving both basic and clinical research on the exocrine and endocrine pancreas and their interrelationships and consequences in disease states. This multidisciplinary, international journal covers the whole spectrum of basic sciences, etiology, prevention, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and surgical and medical management of pancreatic diseases, including cancer.