Changes in Moisture Supply in the Steppe Zone of the Southern Part of Western Siberia for the Period 1980–2050 According to Scenario Forecasts Based on Global CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Research was carried out on changes in the moisture supply of the territory in the dry steppe subzone of the southern part of Western Siberia (geographic coordinates 50.5°–54.5° N, 77.5°–83.0° E) for the period 1980–2050. The hydrothermal humidification coefficient of G.T. Selyaninov is used as the main indicator of the level of moisture supply in the region. The information basis for this study is the results of six climate models of the CMIP6 family, obtained for the modern period 1980–2015, as well as within the framework of scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 of the possible evolution of the global climate system for 2015–2050. The long-term dynamics, boundaries of variations, and trends of the hydrothermal coefficient for the southern part of Western Siberia have been established. An analysis of the influence of the total amount of precipitation and the surface air temperature on the nature and rate of change in the level of moisture supply in the region was carried out. The spatial distribution of moisture supply in the region and the rate of its change for the period under study have been established.