Impact of circular economy on the long-term allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium

Abstract

Lithium is key for a clean energy transition but faces sustainability challenges in the global supply. Here, we use a bottom-up approach to study the evolution of the global lithium-ion battery industry from 2023 to 2050. The supply and demand trends are predicted to determine the supply potential and allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium. The results indicate a projected global lithium demand of 1.93 million metric tons in 2050, a significant increase of 26.2 times compared to 2023. In the process of global lithium resources shifting from underground reserves to in-use stocks, population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) influence regions’ lithium endowment and per capita primary consumption, respectively. If the European Union’s new battery regulation is implemented globally, then it is projected to reduce global primary lithium consumption by 1.03 million metric tons by 2050, with a 53.48% decrease in the proportion of primary lithium consumption. The global demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.93 million metric tons in 2050 compared to the demand in 2023, but the global implementation of recycling policies has the potential to reduce its consumption, as suggested by a bottom-up framework studying the projections of the global supply and demand of lithium for the next decades.