A Nationwide Analysis of Community-Level Floodplain Development Outcomes and Key Influences

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004585
Armen Agopian, Miyuki Hino, A. R. Siders, Christopher Samoray, Katharine J. Mach
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Abstract

Development patterns and climate change are contributing to increasing flood risk across the United States. Limiting development in floodplains mitigates risk by reducing the assets and population exposed to flooding. Here, we develop two indexes measuring floodplain development for 18,548 communities across the continental United States. We combine land use, impervious surface, and housing data with regulatory flood maps to determine what proportion of new development has taken place in the floodplain. Nationwide from 2001 to 2019, 2.1 million acres of floodplain land were developed, and 844,000 residential properties were built in the floodplain. However, contrary to conventional perceptions of rampant floodplain development, just 26% of communities nationwide have developed in floodplains more than would be expected given the hazard they face. The indexes and the analyses they enable can help guide targeted interventions to improve flood risk management, to explore underlying drivers of flood exposure, and to inform how local-to-federal policy choices can be leveraged to limit hazardous development.

Abstract Image

全国范围内社区层面洪泛区开发成果及主要影响因素分析
发展模式和气候变化导致美国各地的洪水风险不断增加。限制洪泛区的开发可以减少暴露在洪水中的资产和人口,从而降低风险。在此,我们为美国大陆的 18,548 个社区制定了两个衡量洪泛区发展的指数。我们将土地利用、不透水表面和住房数据与监管洪水地图相结合,以确定洪泛区内新开发项目的比例。从 2001 年到 2019 年,全国共有 210 万英亩的洪泛区土地被开发,84.4 万套住宅被建在洪泛区内。然而,与人们对洪泛区开发猖獗的传统看法相反,全国仅有 26% 的社区在洪泛区的开发程度超出了其所面临危险的预期。这些指数及其支持的分析有助于指导有针对性的干预措施,以改善洪水风险管理,探索洪水风险的根本原因,并为如何利用地方到联邦的政策选择来限制危险开发提供信息。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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