Predicting the potential habitat suitability of Saussurea species in China under future climate scenarios using the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model
{"title":"Predicting the potential habitat suitability of Saussurea species in China under future climate scenarios using the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143552","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Saussurea species, renowned for its biodiversity and medicinal significance in high-elevation regions, faces endangerment due to climate change and human activities. Despite this, conservation research on Saussurea has been limited. To fill the knowledge gap, this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to simulate Saussurea's habitat suitability and analyze key environmental factors influencing its distribution. Additionally, considering the sensitivity of Saussurea habitats to climate change, this research also simulated the changes in suitable habitat and distribution centroid shifts of Saussurea under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the periods 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s. Findings indicated that Saussurea's suitable habitat was primarily located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, notably within the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. The areas of extremely and moderately suitable habitats were 1.106 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup> and 3.436 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Elevation, Isothermality (Bio3), and Temperature Annual Range (Bio7) were identified as the main environmental factors. Future projections suggest severe habitat fragmentation and a decrease in suitable habitat areas. By 2100, the total area of suitable Saussurea habitat will decrease under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios to 8.658 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup>, 6.971 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup>, 5.811 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup>, and 5.979 × 10⁵ km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Additionally, a slight southeastward shift in the distribution centroid was observed. This study is expected to provide guidance for the conservation of Saussurea and alpine plant biodiversity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cleaner Production","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624030014/pdfft?md5=6d0fee56ed8211ac9983a3b6e94f9659&pid=1-s2.0-S0959652624030014-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Cleaner Production","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624030014","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Saussurea species, renowned for its biodiversity and medicinal significance in high-elevation regions, faces endangerment due to climate change and human activities. Despite this, conservation research on Saussurea has been limited. To fill the knowledge gap, this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to simulate Saussurea's habitat suitability and analyze key environmental factors influencing its distribution. Additionally, considering the sensitivity of Saussurea habitats to climate change, this research also simulated the changes in suitable habitat and distribution centroid shifts of Saussurea under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the periods 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s. Findings indicated that Saussurea's suitable habitat was primarily located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, notably within the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. The areas of extremely and moderately suitable habitats were 1.106 × 10⁵ km2 and 3.436 × 10⁵ km2, respectively. Elevation, Isothermality (Bio3), and Temperature Annual Range (Bio7) were identified as the main environmental factors. Future projections suggest severe habitat fragmentation and a decrease in suitable habitat areas. By 2100, the total area of suitable Saussurea habitat will decrease under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios to 8.658 × 10⁵ km2, 6.971 × 10⁵ km2, 5.811 × 10⁵ km2, and 5.979 × 10⁵ km2, respectively. Additionally, a slight southeastward shift in the distribution centroid was observed. This study is expected to provide guidance for the conservation of Saussurea and alpine plant biodiversity.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Cleaner Production is an international, transdisciplinary journal that addresses and discusses theoretical and practical Cleaner Production, Environmental, and Sustainability issues. It aims to help societies become more sustainable by focusing on the concept of 'Cleaner Production', which aims at preventing waste production and increasing efficiencies in energy, water, resources, and human capital use. The journal serves as a platform for corporations, governments, education institutions, regions, and societies to engage in discussions and research related to Cleaner Production, environmental, and sustainability practices.