Using 3D observations with high spatio-temporal resolution to calibrate and evaluate a process-focused cellular automaton model of soil erosion by water

Abstract

Abstract. Future global change is likely to give rise to novel combinations of the factors which enhance or inhibit soil erosion by water. Thus there is a need for erosion models, necessarily process-focused, which are able to reliably represent rates and extents of soil erosion under unprecedented circumstances. The process-focused cellular automaton erosion model RillGrow is, given initial soil surface microtopography on a plot-sized area, able to predict the emergent patterns produced by runoff and erosion. This study explores the use of Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry as a means to calibrate and validate this model by capturing detailed, time-lapsed data for soil surface height changes during erosion events. Temporally high-resolution monitoring capabilities (i.e. 3D models of elevation change at 0.1 Hz frequency) permit validation of erosion models in terms of the sequence of formation of erosional features. Here, multi-objective functions, using three different spatio-temporal averaging approaches, are assessed for their suitability in calibrating and evaluating the model's output. We used two sets of data, from field- and laboratory-based rainfall simulation experiments lasting 90 and 30 minutes, respectively. By integrating 10 different calibration metrics, the output of 2000 and 2400 RillGrow runs for the field and laboratory experiments respectively, were analysed. No single model run was able to adequately replicate all aspects of either field and laboratory experiments. The multi-objective approaches highlight different aspects of model performance, indicating that no single objective function can capture the full complexity of erosion processes. They also highlight different strengths and weaknesses of the model. Depending on the focus of the evaluation, an ensemble of objective functions may not always be necessary. These results underscore the need for more nuanced evaluation of erosion models, e.g. by incorporating spatial pattern comparison techniques to provide a deeper understanding of the model’s capabilities. Such evaluations are an essential complement to the development of erosion models which are able to forecast the impacts of future global change.