Governance matters: Exploring the impact of governance on routine immunization performance in 54 African countries: A 10-year (2012−2021) analysis using linear mixed models

Abstract

Background

Immunization coverage across numerous African nations has, unfortunately, shown little improvement and, in some cases, has even decreased over the past decade, leaving millions of children vulnerable to vaccine-preventable diseases. While efforts to improve immunization performance have primarily focused on the health system, effective delivery of immunization services is intricately linked to a country's governance, which, in this context, reflects a government's ability to provide comprehensive services to its citizens. This study investigated the relationship between governance, measured using the Mo Ibrahim Index for African Governance, and the trajectory of immunization coverage for three vaccines in 54 African countries from 2012 to 2021.

Methods

We conducted an ecological study utilizing publicly available datasets, the WHO/UNICEF estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the Ibrahim Index of African Governance score (IIAG). We described the trends in routine immunization performance, evaluated and assessed the impact of governance on immunization coverage across 54 African countries for the period 2012 to 2021, using linear mixed models and focusing on three vaccines provided through the Expanded Program on Immunization (DTPCV1, DTPCV3, and MCV1).

Results

Among the 54 African countries studied, 32 (59.3 %) witnessed an overall decrease (slope of change in immunization coverage over time < 0) in immunization coverage, with 16 (29.6 %) experiencing a significant decline (slope of change significantly different from zero (P < 0.05)) in coverage. For DTPCV3, 31 countries (57.4 %) demonstrated a decline in coverage, with 12 (22.2 %) being significant declines. Thirty-two countries (59.2 %) reported a decrease in MCV1 coverage over the analysis period, with 17 (31.5 %) significant. Across all three antigens, the IIAG overall score was positively associated with immunization coverage over time. One unit increase in the IIAG score correlated with an average annual increase of 0.64 (95 % CI: 0.35–0.93) percentage points in DTPCV1 coverage, 0.74 percentage points (95 % CI: 0.42–1.07) in DTPCV3 coverage, and 0.60 (95 % CI: 0.30–0.91) percentage points in MCV1 coverage. These findings suggest that an African country with an average IIAG score just one unit higher than their observed average value over the study period, would have achieved a 6.4 %, 7.4 %, and 6.0 % coverage for DTPCV1, DTPCV3, and MCV1, respectively, above its 2021 coverage levels.

Conclusion

The Expanded Program on Immunization aspires to reach all eligible populations with life-saving vaccines, regardless of the context. We found that country governance may be an important determinant of immunization performance, potentially explaining the observed stagnation or decline in immunization performance and the heightened vulnerability of immunization programs to external shocks. Understanding the nexus between governance and service delivery suggests that immunization actors, funders, and other stakeholders may need to adjust their expectations of countries' immunization performance accordingly.