Wild bird mass mortalities in eastern Canada associated with the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) virus, 2022

Abstract

In 2022, a severe outbreak of disease caused by clade 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus resulted in unprecedented mortality among wild birds in eastern Canada. Tens of thousands of birds were reported sick or dead, prompting a comprehensive assessment of mortality spanning the breeding season between April 1 and September 30, 2022. Mortality reports were collated from federal, Indigenous, provincial, and municipal agencies, the Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative, and other nongovernmental organizations, universities, and citizen science platforms. A scenario analysis was conducted to refine mortality estimates, accounting for potential double counts from multiple sources under a range of spatial and temporal overlaps. Correcting for double counting, HPAI is estimated to have caused 40,391 wild bird mortalities in eastern Canada during the spring and summer of 2022; however, this figure underestimates total mortality as it excludes unreported deaths on land and at sea. Seabirds and sea ducks, long-lived species that are slow to recover from perturbations, accounted for 98.7% of estimated mortalities. Our study provides estimates of bird mortality, with Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus; 25,669), Common Murres (Uria aalge; 8133), and American Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima dresseri; 1894) exhibiting the highest mortality figures. We then compare these mortality estimates with recent population estimates and trends and make an initial assessment of whether biologically meaningful population-level impacts are possible. Specifically, we focus on the Northern Gannet, a species that has suffered significant global mortality, and two harvested species, Common Murre and American Common Eider, to inform management decisions. Our analysis suggests population-level impacts in eastern Canada are possible for Northern Gannets and American Common Eiders, but are unlikely for Common Murres. This study demonstrates a comprehensive approach to assessing mortality and underscores the urgent need for further research to understand the broader ecological ramifications of the HPAI outbreak on wild bird populations.