Effects of 1.5 °C global warming on pavement climatic factors and performance

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104393

Yaning Qiao , Yaxin Wang , Shuyue Zhang , Anne M.K. Stoner , João Santos

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.

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全球升温 1.5 °C 对路面气候因素和性能的影响

本研究比较了 11 个全球气候模型 (GCM)，以评估在全球变暖 1.5 °C 的情况下，美国 24 个城市的预测路面性能的变异性，并提出了方程，以更简单地估算全球变暖对路面性能的影响。结果表明，全球气候模型在预测路面劣化方面存在差异，一些模型的劣化值高于其他模型。与基准情景（1991-2010 年）相比，在全球升温 1.5 °C 的情况下，美国 24 个受调查城市的热裂缝、疲劳裂缝、总车辙和国际粗糙度指数（IRI）分别平均增加 124 英尺/米（23.11 米/公里）、24%、4.6% 和 1%。无论采用哪种全球气候模拟模型，结果都表明美国南部城市预计将遭受更大的内部裂纹指数和热裂纹变化，而与南部城市相比，全球变暖引起的车辙和疲劳裂纹在北部城市将更受关注。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.