{"title":"Effects of 1.5 °C global warming on pavement climatic factors and performance","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2024.104393","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192092400350X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.
期刊介绍：
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution.
We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.
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