{"title":"Sectoral responses to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the US stock market","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100874","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on various industries, highlighting their asymmetric effects on sectoral volatility. Furthermore, we investigate the differential effects of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on sectoral volatility, distinguishing between good and bad volatility responses. We find an asymmetric relationship between economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in these industries, with economic policy uncertainty generally exerting a stronger impact on sector-specific volatility compared to geopolitical risk. During normal circumstances since the 2010s, the influence of geopolitical risk on sector-specific volatility has been relatively insignificant. However, both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk have played significant roles in affecting multiple sectors during certain crisis periods, with geopolitical risk demonstrating short-term effects. These findings have important implications for both investors and policymakers. Investors can time positions using insights on policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, while policymakers can identify vulnerable sectors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042444X24000392","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on various industries, highlighting their asymmetric effects on sectoral volatility. Furthermore, we investigate the differential effects of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on sectoral volatility, distinguishing between good and bad volatility responses. We find an asymmetric relationship between economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in these industries, with economic policy uncertainty generally exerting a stronger impact on sector-specific volatility compared to geopolitical risk. During normal circumstances since the 2010s, the influence of geopolitical risk on sector-specific volatility has been relatively insignificant. However, both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk have played significant roles in affecting multiple sectors during certain crisis periods, with geopolitical risk demonstrating short-term effects. These findings have important implications for both investors and policymakers. Investors can time positions using insights on policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, while policymakers can identify vulnerable sectors.
期刊介绍:
International trade, financing and investments have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years, and the operations of corporations have become increasingly multinationalized. Corporate executives buying and selling goods and services, and making financing and investment decisions across national boundaries, have developed policies and procedures for managing cash flows denominated in foreign currencies. These policies and procedures, and the related managerial actions of executives, change as new relevant information becomes available. The purpose of the Journal of Multinational Financial Management is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the management of the multinational enterprise. Theoretical, conceptual, and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • Foreign exchange risk management • International capital budgeting • Forecasting exchange rates • Foreign direct investment • Hedging strategies • Cost of capital • Managing transaction exposure • Political risk assessment • International working capital management • International financial planning • International tax management • International diversification • Transfer pricing strategies • International liability management • International mergers.