Runoff concentration decline for Tarim river due to a dramatic increasing of runoff in cold season and hydro-junction regulation: Past and future

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101962

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The three headwaters of Tarim river, south of the Xinjiang Province, China.

Study focus

Temporal runoff concentration variations are crucial for water resources utilization and management, particularly in arid regions. In this study, the runoff concentration in the Tarim River Basin is studied based on analysis of the trend, abrupt changes, and periodicity, identifying key extreme climate indices influencing the Gini-runoff coefficient and predicting its future changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

New hydrological insights for the region

From 1962–2020, the Gini-runoff coefficient decreased by 8.3 %, while annual runoff increased by 14.2 %. This is attributed to temperature changes, escalating hydrological risk uncertainty. The anomaly of low geopotential high fields and Central Asian anticyclones have caused an increase in total cloud cover (TCC) and precipitation, and a decrease in the Daily Temperature Range (DTR). Increasing of Warm nights (TN90), Maximum Tmax (TXx), and Hot nights (TR) have enhanced the warm-season runoff. However, the climatic impact on warm-season runoff is less pronounced than that in the cold season, which led to the runoff concentration decline. Changes in hydro-junction regulation led to decrease of Gini-runoff coefficient by 12.11 % from 2001 to 2020 along the Hotan river. Under the three SSP scenarios, the average Gini-runoff coefficient for the Aksu and Hotan rivers are expected to decrease by 3.3 % and 2.6 %, respectively.

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塔里木河的径流浓度下降是由于冷季径流急剧增加和水文交界处的调节：过去与未来

研究区域中国新疆省南部塔里木河的三个源头。研究重点径流浓度的时空变化对水资源的利用和管理至关重要，尤其是在干旱地区。本研究基于对趋势、突变和周期的分析，对塔里木河流域的径流浓度进行了研究，确定了影响吉尼径流系数的关键极端气候指数，并预测了其在三种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的未来变化。这归因于温度变化，增加了水文风险的不确定性。低位势高场异常和中亚反气旋导致总云量（TCC）和降水量增加，日温差（DTR）减小。暖夜（TN90）、最大温度（TXx）和热夜（TR）的增加增强了暖季径流。然而，气候对暖季径流的影响不如对冷季径流的影响明显，这导致了径流浓度的下降。水文枢纽调节的变化导致和田河沿岸的吉尼径流系数从 2001 年到 2020 年下降了 12.11%。在三种 SSP 方案下，阿克苏河和和田河的平均 Gini 径流系数预计将分别下降 3.3 % 和 2.6 %。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.