The impact of climate variation on the spread of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli.

Abstract

Background: Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is influenced by seasonality, but there is limited understanding of how specific climatic variables contribute to disease spread. This information aids in understanding disease transmission dynamics and could potentially inform public health modeling.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed public health data from Ontario, Canada, between 2012 and 2021, along with historical climate data from Environment Canada. We employed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (S-ARIMA) models to assess how temperature and precipitation impact the incidence of STEC infections, measured per 10,000,000 population.

Results: The study included 1658 confirmed STEC cases. A significant correlation was found between STEC incidence and climatic variables. Each degree Celsius increase in maximum temperature was associated with a rise of 3 STEC cases per 10,000,000 population (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2024)). Additionally, each millimeter of increased precipitation correlated with an increase of 1.1 cases per 10,000,000 population.

Conclusions: The findings demonstrate a significant impact of temperature and precipitation on STEC transmission, highlighting the importance of integrating meteorological data into public health surveillance. This integration may help inform public health responses and support healthcare systems in planning for future outbreaks. Further studies are needed to refine predictive models and develop effective early warning systems for clinical settings.